Russian Roulette

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I recently read a blog post by Craig Murray about the unfolding situation regards the Salisbury Incident, and if accurate, it brings some unwelcome thoughts and ingredients into the Scottish Independence mix.

A couple of days ago, the First Minister met with the Prime minister.  Shortly after that, Nicola Sturgeon sent out a tweet that, in my opinion, was very uncharacteristic of her.  In effect she aligned herself with the Prime Minister.  Now I understand that Nicola does not need to be opposite to the Prime Minister on everything but let’s look at the ‘playing field’ and see where the main players sit.

The Tory party and the SNP, are blaming Russia and wanting action now without evidence.  The Labour party are blaming Russia but encouraging dialogue first until all evidence is gathered.

The SNP appear to have gone from a socialist left wing party to a right wing party (on this issue) since Nicola left that meeting with the Prime Minister.

I tweeted back to Nicola saying that I agreed in principle with her tweet but wanted to know why she has taken such an unexpected and hard-line approach against Russia without confirmed independent analysis of the agent.  Nicola could have tweeted a bit of impartiality, a sort of middle ground between the Tories and Labour but she didn’t.  Why?

The tweet by Nicola, in my opinion was entirely political.  I believe she tweeted her aligned thoughts with the Prime Minister as an assurance that whatever was agreed and discussed in the meeting would be respected by the First Minister.

What could have been discussed?

Well, for starters, I’d imagine a compromise has been reached between the First Minister and the Prime Minister on Brexit.

I suspect the Prime Minister has conceded to devolving all powers ‘eventually’ to Holyrood, in exchange for the Continuity Bill being revoked.

In effect, this would be the SNP conceding to Brexit and agreeing with it.  That would be all the major parties agreeing to it.  That means we would have an independence vacuum in Scotland.  Brexit would no longer be the material change in circumstance, and Brexit would no longer be able to be used as an excuse to hold a second referendum.

Some of you may be wondering what the motive would be for Nicola to accept any agreement made by the Prime Minister on powers being devolved given the history of the UK Government not upholding its word, and you would be right in questioning the motive.

If, as I suspect, this promise to get all powers devolved will come in two forms.

Firstly, it will come in the form of the initial lot of powers which the UK Government has agreed to already, and the second part being the ‘promise’ to hand over the remaining 25 post Brexit.

This is Vow 2.0.

Now this could work in both movements’ favours.

If the Vow is made, it will be disguised as ‘temporary’ powers being retained by Westminster until Brexit is done, then fully devolved to Holyrood.  If that doesn’t happen, a second vow will have been broken and independence support would surge and a second referendum demanded by Holyrood and the people of Scotland.

If the vow is made and upheld, the powers returned will allow Scotland to become more independent without full fiscal control.  A step in the right direction but ultimately a means to put the independence vote on the back burner for many years.

Both outcomes are possible, but I suspect the first is more likely.  The problem will always be about timing.

How long could the UK Government hold onto these ‘temporary’ powers before they are forced to devolve them, and will they be devolved in their entirety?

This causes a problem for the independence movement.  When would be the right time to accept any second vow has been broken?  The UK Government position could easily be to kick the can along the road and how support for the SNP falls below any of the Unionist parties.

If this is the game being played it is exceptionally risky by the First Minister as it could put a second vote to the sword for many years.  If it is not the game being played and Nicola simply agrees with blame first, evidence second, then there are many questions needing asked of her, particularly if what Craig Murray has written above is true?

A can of worms awaits, don’t think independence and the breakup of the UK during Brexit is not at the fore here, it is and it always will be so long as it’s on the table.

The tweet above could have far larger ramifications for the Yes movement than what we may realise.  It has brought lots of attention to the SNP, risked splitting voters opinions and brought Yes voters into the fold of ‘in Russia’s pocket’.

I hope that the meeting was worth it. I really do!

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