I have a nice blog post for you all today. One that should set you up nicely if you are heading to the ‘All Under One Banner’ march in Glasgow this weekend.
If you are, I’ll be there too, so hopefully I can meet some of you.
Anyway, IPSOS MORI ran a poll not too long ago. In fact the Express (of all papers) is running with it today. They aren’t best pleased with the results but their angle of attack isn’t actually all that bad (this time).
The recent poll I’m referring to is here.
Below are a couple of ‘easy to read’ charts as extracted from that IPSOS MORI poll, basically I have removed the Don’t knows and compared them like for like with the actual 2014 results.
Firstly, the below question was surveyed as part of the IPSOS MORI poll in March 2018.
If a referendum were held tomorrow about scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question?
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
This was the same question asked in 2014 so the results of this poll can be fairly accurately compared against the actual result in 2014.
As you can see, the percentage of Yes voters in 2014 was 45%, in March 2018, the percentage of Yes voters has increased to 48%. Respectively the number of No voters in 2014 was 55% that has reduced to 52%.
Now it’s fairly common knowledge that these polls have a margin of error of around 2%, so that means, the Yes/No vote is likely 50-50.
This is resoundingly positive for Scotland for the simple reason that campaigning for independence has not officially restarted and the effects of Brexit are not yet fully known, whereas the campaigning for Unionism has never stopped, in fact it has ramped up of late. The telling point is that support for the Union is dropping off. That’s either the Brexit effect, or Scotland has reached peak Unionism and from here on out, the population have realised that independence is the best option.
The next chart is again a comparison on the previous demographics as conducted by Lord Ashcroft In 2014 after the previous referendum.
This is even more surprising.
Support across all 16 to 55 age bands, whether Yes or No has remained within the margin of error (2% points). Some groups upping a percentage point, some dropping a percentage point.
The two stark differences between 2014 and 2018 though is this.
- Three out of the four age bands all show a slight increase in support for independence
- The number of Yes voters aged 55 and over has gone from 27% in 2014 to 37% in 2018. That’s a jump of 10%. That’s a referendum winner.
I suspect I can relate to this increase, not because I am over 55 (I’m not) but because my mother is.
She voted No in 2014, she voted Remain in 2016. Is it possible she might vote Yes at Indyref2 if she knows it’ll guarantee EU membership? Well, stranger things have happened.
I asked her why she voted Remain, she simply said because she thinks travelling to the EU for her children and grandchildren is a good thing. She isn’t wrong. Hopefully that reason will be a good enough reason come Indyref2 for her to be one of those over 55’s who are now likely to vote Yes.
So the moral of the blog is this. Ignore everything Unionists try to tell you about support for independence slipping away and realise that maybe all is not lost when it comes to the over 55s feeling adventurous enough to support their children and grandchildren in building an independent country.